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China economy - What can we believe?

Asian Market Research News

April 25, 2002

Researchers are frequently frustrated at the problem of accessing or purchasing valid up-to-date data on Asian economies. China, as the economy in which there is the most interest, amplifies the problem.

Several years back the APMF published an article on the difficulties of accessing economic data through traditional academic databases. George Haley referred to the problem as "The information void" (PDF article around 300 Kbs).

Developing countries simply do not have the resources to provide the data required on which to build reliable business strategies, including the top rung of developing countries such as Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines. Communist countries like Vietnam, Myanmar Laos and of course China, simply do not disclose much of the data that others do, and even less of their methodologies and associated sampling error and estimate errors.

It is therefore not surprising that the Economist Intelligence Unit asks China economy: Does anyone believe China's numbers? in their Viewswire section.

"...Recognising that criticism of China's data has its limits is not an endorsement of the wild claims frequently made about China. As a responsible and independent organisation, the Economist Intelligence Unit will continue to highlight the deficiencies with the data. But it remains the case that to analyse China's economy fully, we have little choice but to rely on official data. There is simply no adequate alternative..."

We add of course, that yet another option is to research other informal sources of data that can help guide feasibility research and business strategy formulation. Getting an estimate on how much specific data can be trusted is a useful tool in the Asia Researcher's armoury. The EIU article linked above is well worth the read.

Published April 25, 2002 01:40 PM in China PRC
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